Posted by Mulder Venture at 1:30 pm
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Posted by Byung Koo at 9:14 pm
NEWS Alert:
Dear clients,
We’re heading to our first negative performance month-on-month! And immediately to a big drop. May isn’t over yet and also the markets are extremely, extremely volatile but out of the woods, won’t happen.
Right now our performance dropped -26% and of course depends on when your startdate is, it could be higher.
I don’t expected that the U.S dollar rally against all other major currencies. Only with tight money management in the past we could hold this current positions. A further rally in the U.S dollar before a correction won’t help our performance. We need a revovery in EUR, GBP, AUD and some other currencies.
So clients are don’t take any open postions more, because the have a margin call of 3.5% or below. We don’t want to hit the margin call of 1%.
These volatile times gives also us a insight of what kind of movements FX could have.
Account Balance will change very rapidly, mostly down the last week but hopefully a recovery in the next weeks.
Feel free to ask your questions. Our email is: info@mulderventure.com
Best regards,
Byung Koo Mulder
CEO of Mulder Venture BV
Posted by Byung Koo at 8:40 am
Dear clients,
An update from the front of FX trading. This times are very volatile in FX markets. The performance changed and will be change very rapidly. Last week we get a hit in performance, main reason is development in EUR/USD. We could managed a little with some currency pairs like USD/CAD and AUD/USD. Only performance plummeted last week.
FX trading is high risk, because high leverage. So movements like last week are extremely rare but it could happen. I think everyone will agree that stories in EUR, CHF and GBP are spectacular.
Our prediction still stands, EUR will recover from here and we will move above 1.30-1.35 again. Patience is key in this and also money management. Most of the clients are around 10% margin call, so far away of the 1% and our own bottom of margin call of 3,5%.
We believe in our strategy because we had the same period last year. We were in short positions in EUR/USD at 1.45-1.51 and on November when EUR/USD reached 1.5175, we also dropped in performance. Everyone knows what happened in December till now.
On that moment everyone in the markets said 1.60 again and maybe new highs in EUR/USD. Right now everyone talks total different and someone believe a parity in EUR/USD.
We are open for all reactions and opinions. We monitor this every day but we hold on our proved strategy for the coming months.
Feel free to ask your questions.
Best regards,
Byung Koo Mulder
CEO of Mulder Venture BV, Mulder FX
Posted by Mulder Venture at 12:00 am
Currency markets are consolidating at the beginning of this week after the turmoil of Obama’s banking overhaul proposals.
A sparse data calendar on Friday combined with very few releases today means that most traders are likely to remain on the sidelines until further details of the Volcker rules are announced, or until market attention is drawn back to fundamental data. Along with a number of economic releases of note in the coming sessions, there are three central bank meetings scheduled in the G10.
The first will be the BoJ rate announcement tomorrow where markets are expecting rates will be kept on hold at 0.10%; however there is mounting speculation that policy makers are considering expanding an emergency loan programme, and increasing their purchases of government debt. If true, we feel this would further undermine the JPY currency in the medium term; but in the short term the JPY is currently benefitting from a wave of risk aversion post-Obama – with USDJPY dipping as low as 89.79 on Friday. What will be interesting is if the BoJ choose to make any comment on this recent strengthening in the currency, especially as Finance Minister Kan has moved to distance himself from currency-specific remarks of late.
The second central bank meeting of the week will come on Wednesday with the announcement of the FOMC rate decision; once again the market anticipates no change to the Fed Funds target, but as always, the Fed’s assessment of the outlook in 2010 will be keenly awaited.
The third major central bank to deliver its latest policy decision will be the RBNZ late on Wednesday evening (early Thursday). Although many had been hoping for a shift in RBNZ stance towards a more hawkish rate path, the recent softness in New Zealand’s Q4 CPI has dented the prospect of an imminent hike. In December’s statement, the RBNZ stated it did not expect to raise rates before the middle of 2010, so any deviation in that projection to the nearer term would be strongly positive for the currency.
Posted by Mulder Venture at 12:46 pm
Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Bullish
- Japan’s Retail Service Demand Declines as Expected in November
- Consumer Confidence Drops for Second Month on Employment Outlook
The Japanese Yen is likely to extend gains, looking beyond a busy economic calendar to rise on safety-seeking capital flows as evaporating confidence across financial markets sends investors out of fleeing out of risky assets.
Friday’s closing bell marked the end of the worst three-day stretch for US equity markets since last year’s broad-based recovery in risk appetite began in March. The VIX index of stock option volatility, a standby “fear” gauge, surged 55% over the past three days to post the biggest gain since 2007. Investors had their pick of reasons to be selling: fourth-quarter earnings reports disappointed on revenues, which would have been overlooked last year but now is far more critical now that the end of stimulus measures is on the horizon and the economic recovery must become self-sufficient; US lawmakers dithered on whether Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, a figure the markets view a key positive force amid the 2008 financial crisis, will be confirmed for a second term; US President Obama proposed wide-reaching new restrictions on banks’ size and trading activities; and stronger-than-expected Chinese GDP and inflation figures stoked speculation that Beijing would step up efforts to restrict lending amid fears the economy may overheat.
The widespread exodus from risky assets did not leave carry trades unscathed, pushing the Yen sharply higher against the spectrum of its major counterparts as investors sold high-yielding currencies covered their short positions in the low-yielding Japanese unit. With seemingly no easy resolution to any of the issues now weighing on investor confidence, more of the same is likely ahead. Indeed, the short-term correlation between a trade-weighted index of Yen’s value and the 10-year US Treasury note, the benchmark safe-haven instrument, now stands at 88% versus just 66% at the beginning of the week.
The economic calendar does not promise any significant deviations from established themes and seems unlikely to derail risk-driven trading. The monetary policy announcement from the Bank of Japan is unlikely to bring anything new beyond the now familiar warnings about deflation and the need to keep policy accommodative. December’s trade figures are expected to show that exports rose 7.3% from a year before, the first increase in the annual growth rate in 15 months, but year-on-year comparisons were invariably going to turn positive assuming anything shy of continued freefall when compared against the record-setting collapse in late 2008. The same can be said of December’s Retail Sales report, which is poised to show the first positive annualized reading in well over a year. Labor market and CPI figures round out the week, with an increase in the Jobless Rate and continued deflation all falling firmly in line with what has been priced into the Yen exchange rate.
Posted by Mulder Venture at 9:21 am
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Posted by Mulder Venture at 5:02 pm
Excellent trading opportunity in the EUR/GBP pair, enter a long position on 0.8825 and wait whether we will move up to 0.9000-0.9050 again. Small amount of risk, high potential return.
Trade as many lot sizes as you want. However calculate your possible profit or amount of loss and base your lot size accordingly. To give a example; entering with 1 lot size 1:100 leverage, the profit will be around 2.000-2.250 euro or the total loss will be about 850 euro (assuming you entered a stoploss at 0.8750)
If you move this stoploss to 0.8775, your total loss will be about 550 euro.
If we do break the 0.8800 level all bets are off and we could be heading towards EUR/GBP 0.8600.
This trading tip is based on technical analysis!
Posted by Byung Koo at 6:21 pm
In this article we will discuss our view on the EUR/JPY , related to short term goals.
In my opinion the Yen will be the most favored funding currency in 2010. With this in the back of my mind my outlook for EUR/JPY are set to be higher on short term (see graphic). In our view we won’t see don’t a major correction in the first quarter of this year. For the rest of the year we are bearish about the stock markets.
Mulder Currency Fund has already taken a small position on 132 and we will increase our position around the level of 131. We will put a stoploss order at 129.50. Whenever the EUR/JPY breaks 130, it will plummet down to 127-128 levels, levels we saw mid December 2009.
In this case resistance levels are at: 133.25, 133,90, 134.50 and 136,50.
Main resistance levels are at 137-138 this year.
A big indicator you could follow before you take any positions is the cost for short term borrowing in Japanese Yen. Compare the YEN Libor 3 months and USD Libor 3 months.
When the YEN Libor is below the USD Libor this could benefit long positions in EUR/JPY. The JPY will be weaker because investors will switch the carry trade from USD to Yen.
Click for the latest Libor rates
Posted by Mulder Venture at 6:51 pm
Latest Performance Update Mulder Currency Fund.
We are 7 days in and added a substantial profit to our €50.000 live-model account.
View the progress bar below for the current will status and the amount remaining to complete our goal of 1.000.000 euro.
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Posted by Mulder Venture at 3:14 pm
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