Tag : GBPUSD

Mulder FX Update II

Posted by Byung Koo at 9:14 pm

NEWS Alert:

Dear clients,

We’re heading to our first negative performance month-on-month! And immediately to a big drop. May isn’t over yet and also the markets are extremely, extremely volatile but out of the woods, won’t happen.

Right now our performance dropped -26% and of course depends on when your startdate is, it could be higher.

I don’t expected that the U.S dollar rally against all other major currencies. Only with tight money management in the past we could hold this current positions. A further rally in the U.S dollar before a correction won’t help our performance. We need a revovery in EUR, GBP, AUD and some other currencies.

So clients are don’t take any open postions more, because the have a margin call of 3.5% or below. We don’t want to hit the margin call of 1%.

These volatile times gives also us a insight of what kind of movements FX could have.
Account Balance will change very rapidly, mostly down the last week but hopefully a recovery in the next weeks.

Feel free to ask your questions. Our email is: info@mulderventure.com

Best regards,
Byung Koo Mulder
CEO of Mulder Venture BV

GBP/USD Trade Setup results in 700 pips Rally!!

Posted by Byung Koo at 2:05 am

Dear fellow FX Traders,

on 23th March we published an article for a possible trade setup.

The GBP/USD currency pair, target 1.5574, as can be seen we are already there 1.55 and a high of 1.5521. Within 1 month you could have earned a lot of money.

We have never been in serious trouble because of the strong support at 1.48, right now we are 700 pips higher. All of our clients to benefit of this trade setup and we still have some open positions in GBP/USD as a result of this bullish run we now have our outlook on possible short positions.

Benefit from the next possible rally: 6th of May elections in England, heading towards a split parliament most definitely resulting in uncertainty equals bad for currency.

Will you be there to benefit? become a client today!

FX Trade Idea: GBP/USD

Posted by Byung Koo at 12:47 pm

GBP/USD is lately one of the most volatile currency pair. The question is when we’ll break out of wide range of 1.48-1.5350. In graphic you see top at 1.6363 and 50% Fibonacci at 1.5574.

Our prediction for the next coming months is GBP/USD hold 1.48, so everything below 1.49 is a buy opportunity. Look at your own money management how many lot sizes you would buy.

Our target is 50% Fibonacci level at 1.5574 before this summer, so within 3 months.

Forex Trading: GBP/JPY

Posted by Byung Koo at 3:25 am

For the speculative trader!

Big movement expected after BOE meeting, expectations no change but look out for policy statement.
The British pound may have fallen against most of the majors, but the currency did manage to make slight gains against the ultra-weak Japanese yen.
UK data was in line with expectations, as the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the services sector rose to 56.8 in December from 56.6. This indicates expansion in the sector for the eighth straight month, and adds to evidence that the economy is slowing recovering from recession.

Today the Bank of England (BOE) is anticipated to announce at 13:00 CET that they’ve left rates unchanged at 0.50 percent, but this won’t even be the market-moving part of the announcement. Instead, traders will be looking toward the BOE’s policy statement. This has consistently been the prime “news event” of recent rate decisions. Last month, the BOE indicated that they would likely wait until their February meeting before considering any changes to the Asset Purchase Facility (APF), which is currently aiming to purchase £200 billion worth of high quality assets. With no program changes expected this time around, there is potential for the British pound to gain on neutral news as traders will price in an end to the BOE’s quantitative easing program.

Trade idea:
Take a short position at 149.50 with a stoploss on 150.50 or take a long position at 145.75 with a stoploss on 144.60. Mulder Currency Fund puts this two orders in book before announcement of BOE and we will wait for the possible big movement.

Forex Trading: USD against major currencies

Posted by Byung Koo at 3:12 am

Tomorrow biggest news event of every month. NFP(Non-Farm Payrolls), Wednesday we saw an worse drop in jobs in ADP report.

The U.S dollar trading this week in a small range against major currencies, except Australian dollar who rally since the beginning of the week. What we could expect next week for the U.S dollar?

We will see a stronger U.S dollar next week and it will start Friday after the numbers. Because it’s very unclear where the U.S economy stands, the number will be bad or good. Analysts expectations are 0k. The number implicate that they even don’t know. Two scenarios:
What’s gonna happen in U.S dollar if we get another surprise and let’s say the number is + 25k-50k. First move in the U.S dollar is down against major currencies. People believe in more risk appetite but after the news settled the U.S dollar will start to rally because the expectations in rate hike later this year will raise fast. The movement will hold and even rally more next week.

Different scenario, bad numbers like Wednesday, like -50k-100K. The same patron will follow as above but on other reasons. First move in the U.S dollar will be down, because investors/traders see a bad number about U.S economy, so last number was one surprise not more, no continuous. This movement should also be covered by a rally in dollar because the stockmarkets will going down rapidly and investors buy the dollar, investors look for safe haven currency and downgrade risk appetite. This movement will start later than first scenario, because often you will see stockmarkets will hold steady on Friday trade, but for sure next week the U.S dollar will rally more than in first scenario.

Trade with smaller lots sizes than normal, because the movement after NFP are big for sure. First important number of the year 2010, so look out and trade carefully.
For exactly levels to take position is hard to say but few examples.
EUR/USD key level to take short positions: around 1.4550 if EUR/USD in range of 1.43-1.44 before numbers. Would EUR/USD stands before numbers like 1.4450 or higher, take short position at around 1.4650. Main key level in EUR/USD and also major resistance level is 1.47. Mulder Currency Fund would trade on the short side but main key level and support level is in EUR/USD around 1.4175, break this level we will see 1.40 very rapidly.

For many investors in other major currencies against the U.S dollar the movement will be more volatile. GBP/USD trade right now around 1.60. Go short on 1.6250 and main support level is 1.5800. USD/JPY shortposition at 93.50-94 and support level at 92.

After the numbers their will be also a big movement in other currency pairs, major movement expected in GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY.
Different story, Yen is last week ultra-weak, so if the NFP are better than expected, big movement up and not with 100 pips, maybe 300 pips.
Key resistance level and Mulder Currency Fund take short position in EUR/JPY at 136.00 and for GBP/JPY 151. Sometimes I think by myself I put my order too high, no fill but for sure after few secondes after NFP numbers I happy I put that order. For all traders if you trade well and love the volatility in the currency markets, you could earn a lot of money in one hour. Sometimes the same money what you earn in the rest of the whole month.

So please trade careful!

GBP/USD small range

Posted by Byung Koo at 1:44 am

Trade Idea, SELL at 1,6010 with stoploss at 1,6040 or BUY 1,5930 with stoploss at 1,5900. In this short week no expectations of a big movement in this currency pair. So trade with more lot size and earn money!

GBP/USD near critical levels, what to do?

Posted by Byung Koo at 11:23 pm

The British Pound fell considerably for the second consecutive day of trade, closing below important support at its 200-day moving average and leaving overall momentum firmly to the downside. A disappointing revision to Q3 Gross Domestic Product growth did the bulk of the damage, while a later US Dollar rally only exacerbated the GBP/USD decline. The UK Office of National Statistics reported that the economy shrank a more modest 0.2 percent through the period—better than the initially-reported -0.3 percent change but worse than the consensus -0.1 percent move. Given that the UK is one of the few major world economies that failed to recover through the third quarter, the GDP disappointment only served to worsen investor outlook on the British economy and currency. Traders should subsequently be on the lookout for today’s key Bank of England Minutes release. The last several BoE Minutes have shown substantial currency volatility given surprise votes on key measures, and today may be no exception.

The potential for the economy to emerge from its recession in the final quarter of 2009 has raised expectations that the BoE will bring an end to their asset purchase program and look toward tightening. The shortening time frame for a rate hike has increased U.K. interest rate expectations in determining GBP/USD price direction, which is currently explaining 32% of volatility compared with 19% a week ago. However, risk appetite has also seen a rise in its influence from 28% to 43% in the past month, but that relationship has shown signs of warning over the past few days which increases the importance of today’s BoE minutes release.

Today’s release of the MPC minutes from their last rate decision will give insight into the timeframe for the beginning of tightening. The central bank didn’t add to their asset purchase program in December and following the month’s prior split vote on additional measures, it will be interesting to see where the votes fell this time around. If members are still calling for more quantitative easing then the outlook for interest rates could sink and drag the pound lower. A unanimous vote and optimistic rhetoric from policy makers should raise the potential for future rate hikes and provide sterling support. Service sector and housing data will also be released and could influence sentiment.

Key support level is 1.5800-1,5850 but will be hold or break? Will be hold, GBP/USD still in range 1,5800-1,5850 and 1,6756(first blue line). I don’t want to talk about will it break 1,58 than GBP/USD could drop very fast to next support level 1,5160(orange line)!

Mulder Currency Fund have no open positions right now in GBP/USD but one small order to buy GBP/USD on 1,5825 with stoploss order on 1,5750. In a thin market like this week, we could see big movement after BoE minutes today. If the order will be filled, target short term(1-2 weeks) is 1,62 to take profit. So we could lose around 600 euro’s or win more than 2000 euro’s. Order is lot size 100.000 USD and with a leverage of 100. A small order Mulder Currency Fund have an amazing half year behind, with a performance of more than 300% within 6 months so these days you don’t trade big. Next year a lot of opportunities and we expect high volatility in currency pairs.

Risk Appetite Takes Multiple Hits & USD Gains

Posted by Mulder Venture at 6:47 am

Markets are still digesting yesterday’s rapid fire moves and their implications for longer term direction. It was the sterling sell-off that really sparked the FX markets, caused by BoE’s King stating that “weaker sterling helping necessary rebalancing of UK economy towards exports.” The Cable dropped nearly three big figures after that comment. In addition, BoE MPC member Dale reinforced King’s view by also commenting that U.K.’s economic recovery may be sluggish and lingering, while unemployment is likely to continue to increase. But most importantly, he acknowledged King’s statement that the sterling’s fall is helping the domestic economy.

We expect the sterling to remain weak, as there is still a high probability that BoE expands its asset purchase program by £25bn due to weak housing market and monetary indicators. The rout was quickly joined by commodities and equity markets, which were already feeling heavy. In the US session, two events in softer housing data and the Feds announcing a shift in lending and auctions facilities caused a strong second jolt to risk appetite. The drop in US existing homes sales from 5.24m to 5.10m in August disappointed the recovery bulls. However, we see it more as a temporary one off and the stabilizing of a positive trend rather than a sign of renewed weakness. In addition, it doesn’t negate the Fed’s FOMC comments that “activity in the housing market has increased”. Perhaps the more important event was the Fed’s announcement that it would reduce in size the Term Auction Facility by $25bn and the Term Securities Lending Facility will shrink to $50bn, and then $25bn. While this move doesn’t offset the fed commitment to further Balance sheet expansion or eliminates markets pressures that could force the central bank to expand liquidity operations, it highlights improving conditions in the short term funding markets and a movement towards thinking about “exit strategy.“ Risk appetite clearly dented today, with the USD on a much stronger foot than it was on Wednesday. Asian and European equity indexes have struggled and we expect US stock to follow suit.

Today’s data calendar sees Eurozone M3 and UK Total Business Investment Data from Europe, while the US session will provide Durable Goods Orders, U.Mich, and New Home Sales. Durable goods Orders are expected to post a 0.4% increase in August, while New Home Sales are forecast to rise 1.6% – considering yesterday’s big miss on Existing Home Sales, it will be worth watching this one.

Outside the economic data, markets will be increasingly interested in the G20 meeting, which concludes today. There is a lot on the docket, so a meaningful agreement (outside the frivolous bonus debate) is very possible. Today’s WSJ cites several senior sources saying that the G20 is close to an agreement that would require its members to subject their economic policies to peer review. In addition, renewed conversations on re-balancing could have strong implications in the FX markets. We will wait for the communique…….